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As such, we do not think reducing airfares will deal a serious blow to their earnings. Accordingly, our FY earnings are adjusted higher by We are keeping our FY earnings unchanged. Target price is maintained at RM6. Page 1 of 2 www. Company, TA Research Scorecard The portfolio lease expiry profile remained well spread out as at 31 Dec , with Bulk of the renewal for , bulk of the renewal will come from The Mines, with Company, TA Research Source: However, the overall net income growth is expected to be partially offset by continuous weak rental outlook at Sungei Wang Plaza.
In addition, rental reversion for shopping malls in the Klang Valley may be starting to moderate, given the huge influx of new retail spaces of approximately 5mn sq.
Meanwhile, the deferment of electricity tariff hike announced in the revised Budget , will be a temporary relief to CMMT. Going into , we expect the group to review the serviced charges across the portfolio, as we understand that The Mines has already increased the service charges effective Jan We do not see many reasons to be excited over CMMT in the near term given the less robust rental reversion outlook due to rising competition.
Nevertheless, share price could be supported by decent forward yields of 6. Through a separate entity, both parties will collaborate to develop, construct and manage a proposed residential development project — located in Phase 3 TPM Bukit Jalil. As part of the agreement, TPM shall contribute the aforementioned land measuring Meanwhile, IRIS will provide the funding and expertise required to construct, develop, complete and manage the project. The initial investment sum for the first phase of the project is estimated at RM This is to be funded through a combination of internally generated funds and bank borrowings.
The project is expected to commence with the next six months, with a target completion time of between 24 and 30 months for its first phase. Based on information located on its website, there are currently tenants located within TPM. Recommendation Leave our earnings estimates pending finalised details for the project.
Overall, noting the presence of colleges and universities within the vicinity, the project will allow the company to capitalise on the underlying demand for hostel accommodation by students. However, based on the number of projects currently in the pipeline, management faces the challenge of balancing the necessary time and resources required for successful implementation. This may potentially result in delays from the guided timelines. Maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock. The fact that the new official GDP growth forecast of 4.
USD originally should assuage concerns about the glaring disparity between reality and forecast, unless crude oil prices tumbles sharply again. Besides, the decision to cut operating expenditure and not development expenditure is highly welcomed.
It is our view that the slight 50 basis point reduction in GDP target range is bearable amid weakness in the global economy. However, the slight increase in deficit target to 3.
As a whole, we are Neutral on the announcement. See Appendix 1 for details of the revised Budget Page 1 of 11 www. Key European and Asian Currencies vs. USD Minor boost for Consumer sector The allocation for flood relief victims should bolster well for demand in basic items like clothing and food and should have some impact, albeit minimal, on Consumer players like Nestle Sell, TP: Neutral Impact on Construction Sector We see the revised budget has neutral impact on the construction sector as the development expenditure of RM While an initial allocation of RMmn is budgeted for repair and reconstruction of basic infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, roads and bridges damaged in recent floods, we believe the priority will be given to local class G1 class F , G2 class E and G3 class D contractors, instead of bigger and listed construction players.
We expect the growth in the construction sector to taper off after experiencing strong growth since To mitigate the specific issue that Chinese tourist arrival had gone down To reduce domestic air fares, a more direct and effective way is to reduce the airfares charged by Malaysian Airline System MAS and Firefly, which will cause other local operators AirAsia and Malindo to follow suit.
Airasia Still a Buy: Delay in Tariff Hike Positive for Glove Sector To reduce the cost of doing business, there will be a postponement of the scheduled increase in electricity tariff and gas price hike in This will be positive for rubber glove manufacturers. With the delay, local manufacturers will be afforded more time to develop solutions to reduce its dependency on energy costs.
Indirectly, manufacturers may also benefit from efforts to promote exports of goods and services — such as the implementation of international linkage and export promotion programmes. The announcement that the revision in the electricity tariff will be postponed refers to the next scheduled tariff review in June Reading between the lines, we believe that it means there will be no revision in the fixed gas price, now at RM Recall that under the subsidy rationalisation plan, the price of domestic gas should be raised by RM3.
At this juncture, we believe there is two options to deal with the cost over-recovery, 1 pass down to consumer via reduction in electricity tariff, and 2 return the savings into the stabilisation funds. On a broader perspective though, postponing the tariff review process is negative.
Under the IBR timeline, tariff review should be done semi-annually. Frequent postponing of reviews only creates the impression that political consideration will continue to be critical hurdle to a smooth implementation.
That said, yesterday, the share price reacted rather mildly down by 0. When the postponement of the Dec tariff review was announced back in Nov , the share price declined by a larger 3. This divergence, in our opinion, is because Tenaga is now positioned to benefit from the status quo, compared with potential cost under-recovery back then.
No change to our earnings forecasts at this juncture. Maintain Tenaga as a Buy with target price of RM We believe much of the news are already in the price after Petronas announced its decision to cut capex and opex last month. For companies under our universe of coverage, we reduce our crude oil price assumptions for lower to USD previous: The reason for the lower assumption is on the back of: Furthermore, we believe the current downcycle will likely take an extended period to play out given the current chronic oversupply situation.
As per Figure 8, current average oversupply of approximately k bpd far exceeds the average of k bpd recorded during previous downcycles between and There is potential upside risk to our oil price assumption if there is a reversal in the factors mentioned above, particularly if smaller-sized shale producers close shop.
We also understand that most of these smaller producers are highly leveraged. Crude Oil Price Demand and Supply As highlighted in our earlier report dated 14 Nov , whereby we downgraded the sector to Neutral lower oil price results in capex slowdown and project delays.
We maintain our Buy recommendation on SAKP as we believe the impact of lower crude oil prices are priced-in, thus rendering the stock attractive from a risk-reward perspective.
A stable exchange rate of RM3. Budget was formulated based on strong economic fundamentals in The fiscal deficit was forecast from 3. Falling Crude Oil Prices will Reduce Federal Government Revenue Falling crude oil prices reduce government revenue used to develop schools, roads, and houses of worship, as well as salaries for civil servants, cost of medicine in public hospitals, agriculture subsidies, and expenditure for security including armed forces, police and RELA Forecast price of USD per barrel used in the Budget is no longer realistic Crude oil price is estimated at USD40 to USD70 per barrel Government revised downwards its forecast for the average baseline oil price to USD55 per barrel for Developments in the global economy Concerns over the impact of the sharp fall in oil prices on Malaysian economy Government to monitor: Ensure balanced, inclusive and sustainable economic growth Continue fiscal reforms and consolidation Provide assistance to the rakyat and business community to rebuild infrastructure damaged by floods First Strategy: Ensuring Balanced, Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth To boost exports of goods and services Actively promote import-substitution services, such as shipping, port, education and professional services Reduce dependence on foreign sources for procurement of goods and services Accelerate implementation of recommendations of National Export Council: Improve last-mile connectivity to Port Klang including access road, railway network and traffic management system Upgrade Padang Besar railway terminal Improve operational efficiency of import and export processes Establish a hub and spoke system for air transport Intensify tourism industry Review levy on foreign workers Waiver of visa fee for tourists from, among others, China To enhance private consumption, the Government will implement the following initiatives: Continuing Fiscal Reforms and Consolidation Among the revenue enhancement measures include: Broaden the tax base by encouraging companies to register with the Royal Malaysian Customs to enable them to charge and collect GST.
The Government will undertake the following expenditure rationalisation measures: Optimise outlays on supplies and services, especially overseas travel, events and functions and use of professional services. This will result in savings of RM1. This measure will result in savings of RM3. Assisting the Rakyat and Business Community as well as Rebuilding Infrastructure Damaged by the Floods The recent floods affected around , people nationwide, with latest estimate of damage to infrastructure is about RM2.
Initial allocation of RMmn for rehabilitation works and welfare programmes for flood victims. In addition to the existing allocation to the National Security Council, bringing the total to RMmn Provide an initial allocation of RMmn for repair and reconstruction of basic infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, roads and bridges Provide RMmn under the Budget for flood mitigation projects Build 8-ft stilt houses for those who have land and whose homes were damaged by the floods Hand over 1, units of completed low-cost houses in Gua Musang; Provide RM per flood affected household; and Provide RM5, for the next-of-kin who have lost family members.
For businesses affected by floods: Although the ringgit has depreciated, it is expected to stabilise over time to reflect the strong economic fundamentals; Development Expenditure of RM This includes projects for the people economy such as public housing, flood mitigation, water supply, electricity and public transport infrastructure such as Pan-Borneo Highway.
Operating Expenditure is expected to be reduced by RM5. Daily Technical Stock Picks b. Daily Stock Screen Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods.
As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. Buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price touches the upper band. Momentum traders tend to buy on price breakouts above the upper band, and sell when price breaks down below the lower band. A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought.
A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the day moving average should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential.
A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the day average is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the day average, and negative if it remains below. A longer-term uptrend is intact if share price sustain above the day average, and is deemed broken if it breaches below this level. The DMI is an indicator of trend strength. The higher the value of ADX, the stronger the trend. An ADX value above 25 suggests a trending market or stock, while a value below 20 signal congestion or absence of trend.
Immediate support cushioning downside seen at the lower Bollinger band RM0. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close.
If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade price times number of shares is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions inflows, buys are done on upticks; subtractions outflows, sells are done on downticks. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change.
For example, a falling stock price with a positive money flow IN can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow OUT implies potential correction in the stock price. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
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